The predicted probability of live birth in In Vitro Fertilization varies during important stages throughout the treatment: analysis of 114,882 first cycles

Abstract
Research question: How much the variability in patients’ response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients’ basal characteristics?
Design: Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models.
Results: Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients’ characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66).

Autori: Antonio La Marca, Martina Capuzzo, Valeria Donno, Mario Mignini Renzini, Cinzia Del Giovane, Roberto D’Amico, Sesh Kamal Sunkara